Prediction Distribution Builder

Say what you think the outcome of an event will be, and see the portfolio that bets on your view. It needs a connected Kalshi account; see Kalshi account. See Distribution Builder for how it works.

The Distribution Builder for a Kalshi inflation event: projected profit and loss by outcome range above a slider per range setting a distribution of your own, peaked a step above where the market centers.

What it shows

  • A chart of your profit and loss if the outcome lands in each range: Current P&L for what you hold, and Projected P&L for the optimal portfolio.
  • Your Prediction Distribution: a slider per outcome range, with the market’s own odds beneath each. Reset To 0 and Reset To Market start over.
  • Optimal Portfolio: for each market, what you hold, what the optimal portfolio holds, and the trade between them, with a button to open a ticket for it.
  • Current and Optimal Portfolio Analysis: exposure, cost basis, expected value, expected profit, and expected return on exposure.

Settings

The top bar:

  • Sizing: Match My View, Kelly Criterion, Maximize Edge, Equal Weight, or Risk Parity.
  • Exposure: how much to put at risk.
  • Taker to Maker: whether trades are priced at the market or rest at your price.
  • A market group, for events with more than one.

Configure sets the Integration, Event ID, and an optional Market Group. It works with ladders, ranges, spreads, scalar, and multiple-outcome events, but not a single yes-or-no market.